Can’t Stop: Strategies to Push Your Luck and Win (13 Tips)

Understand and use the ‘Rule of 28’

It will come as no surprise that being good at Can’t Stop takes some understanding of probabilities and statistics. Not to worry, though – all of the hard work has already been done for us and all that’s required to be a top player is some basic knowledge of the mathematical analysis.

Computer Scientists James Glenn and Christian Aloi created a heuristic for single-player Can’t Stop in this technical paper. The most important takeaway for casual or competitive Can’t Stop play is the ‘Rule of 28’ which describes how to know when to end a turn.

The idea goes like this: Each track on the board is assigned a point value. When you move a black token along a track, add the number of points for that column to your total. When your total reaches 28 or more, you should stop and end your turn. The point values for each track are:

Track	Point Value
2, 12	6
3, 11	5
4, 10	4
5, 9	3
6, 8	2
7	1

Knowing this basic rule is enough to boost your game quite a bit, but if you want to get even more technical you can add these modifiers:

• When a black token is first added to the board, add twice its normal value to your total
• Subtract 2 from your total if all your tracks are odd
• Add 2 to your total if all your tracks are even
• Add four points to your total if all three tracks are less than 8 or all three tracks are more than 6

It’s important to remember that this heuristic is generalized and is designed for the optimization of single player games. It doesn’t factor in the behavior of other players, the elimination of columns, or the current game state. Still, it’s a powerful tool to help guide your behavior – especially at the beginning of a game when the board is clear (or close to it).

Delay using your second and third black tokens

The most crucial strategy in Can’t Stop is to delay using your second and third black tokens during your turn. Holding on to your tokens gives you flexibility with your rolls by avoiding getting locked into 3 specific numbers. Until you have placed all three tokens you can think of every roll almost as a ‘free roll’ because it hasn’t cost you anything.

For this reason, while you still have black tokens in your hand it’s almost always best to progress two spaces up the same track instead of one space each on two tracks. This way, you get to make progress without committing yourself to an additional track and you can make more rolls in the future.

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Know the probabilities of rolling each number

One of the most useful tips I can give is to simply memorize the probability of rolling each number. Even if you don’t remember the percentages exactly, having a general idea of the likelihood of each number can prove useful in a wide variety of scenarios in Can’t Stop.

Number	Probability
2, 12	13.2%
3, 11	23.3%
4, 10	35.6%
5, 9	44.8%
6, 8	56.1%
7	64.3%

Note that these percentages don’t add up to 100% because this table reflects the probability that you’ll be able to combine your dice into the given number.

Push your luck with multiple middle tracks

A common (and powerful) strategy in Can’t Stop is to try to place your black tokens on the middle tracks (6, 7, and 8). The middle tracks have, by far, the best chances of being rolled, so you will statistically be very likely to make a lot of progress in those tracks before having to stop.

According to the work of Jeff Smith, Your probability to continue (the chances you hit at least one of your three numbers) with 6, 7, and 8 is 92%. That means that you’d have a 66% chance of hitting at least one of those numbers 5 times in a row. If you kept going, you’d have more than a 43% chance of hitting at least one of them 10 times in a row!

Due to these extremely high probabilities, sometimes you can very easily complete at least one of these central tracks in a single turn. If you manage to get your black tokens on 6, 7, and 8 don’t be afraid to push your luck!

Your odds aren’t much worse with numbers like (5, 7, 8) or (6, 7, 9). You have a 64% chance of hitting one of those numbers 5 times in a row and a 41% chance of doing it 10 times in a row. Below is a chart of some powerful middle track combinations for easy reference. Note that these percentages begin to apply immediately after you have allotted your three black tokens.

Number Comination	% to hit	% to hit 5 times in a row	% to hit 10 times in a row
6, 7, 8	92%	65.9%	43.4%
5, 7, 8 or 6, 7, 9	91.4%	63.8%	40.6%
6, 8, 10 or 4, 6, 8	91.1%	62.7%	39.4%
6, 7, 10 or 4, 7, 8	90.3%	60.0%	36.0%
6, 8, 9 or 5, 6, 8	89.5%	57.4%	33.0%

Take small wins at the edge of the board

When it comes to the edge of the board with the numbers 2 and 12 (and 3 and 11 to a lesser extent) you should take the opposite approach. Some players suggest that if you roll a 2 or a 12 you should end your turn as soon as is practical and lock that progress in. Making a single space of progress on the 2 or 12 track is the equivalent of 4 or 5 spaces on the 7 track, and with some luck rolls they can be the path to a swift victory.

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One combination I’m particularly fond of is placing my tokens on 2 (or 12) with my other two tokens on a middle track (6, 7, or 8). This gives me a good chance of continuing to roll and possibly tacking on another 2 (or 12) before ending my turn.

The extreme numbers on the spectrum actually offer the best value in terms of spaces required to complete. Let’s examine the chart below. Based on the probability of rolling each number and the number of spaces in each track, you get about 2% more value from the numbers 2, 3, 11, and 12 compared to other numbers. This might not seem like much but over the span of many games it can make a definite difference.

Number	Probability	Spaces in track	% of track per space
2, 12	13.2%	3	22.7%
3, 11	23.3%	5	21.5%
4, 10	35.6%	7	19.7%
5, 9	44.8%	9	20.1%
6, 8	56.1%	11	19.6%
7	64.3%	13	20.2%

Focus on a single track, don’t spread the wealth

When it comes to claiming a track in Can’t Stop, there are no points for second place. Therefore, it’s usually best to devote your attention to a single track instead of switching between multiple tracks.

For example, let’s say you’ve placed your black tokens on 5, 7, and 8. If, on each of the next 6 rolls, you had to choose between 7 and 8, it would be best to advance only the 8 (or only the 7) 6 times instead of advancing each of them 3 times. This increases your chances of completing a single track and reduces the chances that an opponent will beat you to the end of both.

Play safe when winning, aggressive when losing

This strategy is pretty intuitive but still bears pointing out. If you have a huge lead in Can’t Stop then you should generally play more conservatively to seal an almost sure win. For example, let’s say you’ve completed two tracks and have a good start on two others, while your opponent has barely begun anything. Take small, incremental improvements to eventually finish your third track and force your opponent to take incredibly risky rolls.

Conversely, if you’re down big then your best chance to win is usually to play more aggressively than normal. Sure, you might go bust and lose all of your progress, but if your opponent is likely going to win on the next turn anyway you may as well go out swinging!

Be conservative when middle tracks are claimed

Late in the game, the middle tracks are often finished and can no longer be used to continue rolling. You must account for this because those middle tracks are still the most likely to be rolled even you can’t use them. You should generally be much more conservative with your rolling once 6, 7, and/or 8 are claimed because you can no longer rely on them to continue your turn.

The exception to this is if, as previously discussed, you are losing and your opponent is very close to winning. You might be best advised to push your luck and try to win the game even if the odds are low.

Stop when you’ve won a race to claim a track

It’s not unusual for two or more players to be competing to claim the same track. If you’re ever in a race to complete a column/track, then once your black tokens are all allotted you should usually end your turn to secure that column for yourself. If you go bust and lose your progress, your opponent will likely claim the column for himself.

Don’t automatically stop when you’ve won a track

For many new players, stopping their turn after winning a track is almost automatic. However understandable this impulse is, it shouldn’t be automatic. There are plenty of scenarios where it’s probably best to continue rolling even after winning a track. Of course, if you still have any black tokens in your hand then you should always keep rolling, but other cases where you might want to consider rolling include:

• When the track you completed would be easy to complete again, if need be
• You are well behind and need to make up ground

Avoid finishing a middle track early in a turn

The biggest benefit of progressing on a middle track (6, 7, or 8) is the very high probability that you’ll be able to hit that number and continue rolling. However, if you get to the top of a track in the middle of your turn you won’t be able to use that number to help ensure that you’ll get to continue rolling. Therefore, sometimes it’s best to delay completing a track to make progress on another.

For example, in the game below I chose to progress on the 6 track instead of completing the 7 track here. That way, I could continue using the reliability of the 7 track to continue rolling and make more progress on the 5 and 6 tracks.

Avoid picking fights in 3 or 4-player games

The board can get awfully crowded in 3 and 4-player games. In a perfect world, you’d let your opponents fight over the same columns while you make uncontested progress on your own columns. This is, of course, unrealistic, but we can take some steps to make things less combative.

Avoid progressing your tokens on the same tracks as other players. This is usually a last, tie-breaking factor in my decision-making, but if given a choice between two equally desirable numbers (6 and 8, for example) then I would prefer to choose the one that doesn’t already have an opponent on it. This allows a chance for the other players to fight over a column while I play uncontested on mine.

Remember that there’s a lot of luck involved

At the end of the day, Can’t Stop is a pretty lightweight dice-rolling game that inherently requires a lot of luck to win. You can make all of the right decisions from a statistical standpoint and still end up losing to someone who has never played the game before. While these strategies will help you win far more games over many play-throughs, it’s important to remember that in any single game you can easily fall victim to plain old bad luck. That’s the nature of the game, and part of what makes it fun!

Thanks for reading! If I missed something or you have your own opinions, please drop a comment below.